Visual Bayes Estimator

Define Your Propositions

Start by defining the hypothesis (H) and the observation (O) you are considering.

Define the Hypothesis (H):

Define the Observation (O):

How Surprising is Your Hypothesis?

Consider the statement: ""

Indicate how surprising this statement is to you *before* considering any new observation.

Prior Probability P(H) via Surprisingness: ?

This is your initial belief in the hypothesis H before you consider the observation O. "Not At All Surprising" means you think H is very likely (Probability close to 1). "Super Surprising" means you think H is very unlikely (Probability close to 0).

Super Surprising (P ≈ 0) Not At All Surprising (P ≈ 1)

Probability: --

How Surprising is the Observation, IF Hypothesis is True?

Consider the statement: ", assuming is true."

Indicate how surprising this assumption makes the observation.

Likelihood P(O|H) via Surprisingness: ?

This is the probability of seeing the observation O, *given that the hypothesis H is true*. "Not At All Surprising" means O is very likely if H is true (Probability close to 1). "Super Surprising" means O is very unlikely if H is true (Probability close to 0).

Super Surprising (P ≈ 0) Not At All Surprising (P ≈ 1)

Probability: --

How Surprising is the Observation, IF Hypothesis is False?

Consider the statement: ", assuming is false."

Indicate how surprising this assumption makes the observation.

Likelihood P(O|~H) via Surprisingness: ?

This is the probability of seeing the observation O, *given that the hypothesis H is false (~H)*. "Not At All Surprising" means O is very likely if H is false (Probability close to 1). "Super Surprising" means O is very unlikely if H is false (Probability close to 0). This value is crucial for determining how much the observation O updates your belief in H.

Super Surprising (P ≈ 0) Not At All Surprising (P ≈ 1)

Probability: --

Bayes' Theorem Update

Based on your belief about "" (Hypothesis H) and the surprisingness of "" (Observation O) under different assumptions, here is the updated probability:

Results for "" given ""

Prior Probability P(H): --

Posterior Probability P(H|O): --

Likelihood P(O|H): --

Likelihood P(O|~H): --

Prior Odds: --

Likelihood Ratio: --

Posterior Odds: --