Indicate how surprising this statement is to you *before* considering any new observation.
Super Surprising (P ≈ 0)Not At All Surprising (P ≈ 1)
Probability: --
How Surprising is the Observation, IF Hypothesis is True?
Consider the statement: ", assuming is true."
Indicate how surprising this assumption makes the observation.
Super Surprising (P ≈ 0)Not At All Surprising (P ≈ 1)
Probability: --
How Surprising is the Observation, IF Hypothesis is False?
Consider the statement: ", assuming is false."
Indicate how surprising this assumption makes the observation.
Super Surprising (P ≈ 0)Not At All Surprising (P ≈ 1)
Probability: --
Bayes' Theorem Update
Based on your belief about "" (Hypothesis H) and the surprisingness of "" (Observation O) under different assumptions, here is the updated probability: